Population projections and the medium variant

What the UN's figures up to 2100 are, and why they are not predictions.

The UN Population Division projects every country's population by applying assumed future fertility, mortality and migration rates to the latest population estimates.

The medium variant is the central scenario: fertility moves towards the levels seen in comparable countries, life expectancy keeps rising, and migration changes slowly. Other variants, not shown here, assume higher or lower fertility.

Projections are redone with each edition of World Population Prospects as new census and survey data arrive. On this site, projected years are drawn as dashed lines, marked in tables, and never used as the latest figure for a country.

Measures on this site

• Population, estimates and projections to 2100 (UN Population Division)
• Total fertility rate, estimates and projections to 2100 (UN Population Division)
• Median age, estimates and projections to 2100 (UN Population Division)